
At the request of Mare who, for some reason, comes here for the cogent analysis of Quebec provincial politics, I have a few thoughts on the current political landscape.
I think the ADQ did as well as they did for a few reasons:
- There is, like anywhere else, a strain of conservatism and reactionary politics in much of the province. People don’t like paying high taxes to paternalistic governments. Dumont has capitalised on this quite well.
- He’s also exploited what I think is a bit of media creation on the issue of “reasonable accommodation.” I think of these issues as the “Who gives a shit?” issues. Does anyone seriously care if the owner of a Cabane à Sucre makes provisions for 200 Muslim visitors? Or if a girl covers her head while playing soccer? Well, the tabloids and the shock jocks do so they turn it into some kind of foreign assault on “traditonal” culture.
- Dumont also successfully exploited what the most astute political analysts refer to as Jean Charest’s “shitty premierness.”
- Dumont also successfully exploited what the most astute political analysts refer to as Andre Boisclair’s “shitty leaderness,” although personally, I think he represented the better direction for the PQ. Maybe he arrived too soon.
I don’t believe the ADQ success and the PQ’s poor showing last night represents any kind of death blow to the sovereignist movement. I think after a few years in opposition, the ADQ’s inexperience will show and their support will dwindle down to its true core.
Charest would probably be wise at this point to start a plan of succession and hand the reins over to someone else, perhaps even somebody voters like, as that seems to be key in winning elections. It’s also a fair bet the PQ are going to want a new guy as well. But again, I think Boisclair has the right approach, but perhaps he wasn’t the guy to present it.
I read somewhere that Quebec tends to create generational political parties and that this is the end of the PQ generation in the same way they ushered in the end of the Union Nationale. But I doubt it. The idea of an independent Quebec is too strong for the PQ to be sent to the political margins. That’s why it’s fairly likely that although I think the ADQ will be a force for some time, this particular election is a one-time thing.
And now that I’ve written all that, I will be invariably proved wrong.
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